Malos tiempos para el 2008?

Según el articulo de hoy de Mises.org firmado por Dominick Armentano el 2008 USA viene movidito debido a:

- crisis de las subprime.
- desaceleración del mercado inmobiliario
- alza del precio de materias primas (energéticas)
- bajada del precio del dolar

... el factor común destras de todo parece que esta en la política laxa con los tipos de interés de de la Reserva Federal

Sean Corrigan ya lo decia en 2006...

• This is because, as Mises and Hayek taught us, a producer-led boom which has been launched on a wave of easy credit starts out on the shakiest of foundations.
• Monetary laxity first makes itself felt by way of such artificially suppressed real interest rates that even as hurdle rates for entrepreneurs are lowered, investors switch what savings they still make into more speculative, longer-lived vehicles.
• Sadly, this gleaming superstructure will all be built on sand. The crucial flaw in its solidity will lie in the fact that entrepreneurs and their financiers have collectively mistaken the abundance of financial capital (which they themselves have largely created out of thin air) into thinking there must exist a correspondingly deep pool of physical capital and labor resources upon which they can draw without affecting their prices too adversely.
• Meanwhile, an excess of credit means that the effect of lower-than-warranted real interest rates, of shrunken risk premiums, and of higher-than-sustainable equity valuations tends to promote the purchase of capital goods. This occurs as, on the one hand, the lower hurdle rates will make all manner of pending, capital-intensive undertakings suddenly seem viable, and, on the other, the lowered discount rate will have the greatest impact on the worth of those durable assets that give off a modest but long-lived stream of income – much as a long-maturity, low-coupon bond will rally most in the same circumstances.
• Since no one is voluntarily saving any more and since the increase in money incomes has been earned in the course of activities that do not yet give rise to more consumer goods on which to spend them, the inevitable consequence is that final goods prices begin to rise.

• Thus will end the investment boom and then – and only then – will the malign influence of rising unemployment and falling incomes be felt on a consumer sector that has thus far been positively humming along to the tinkle of cash registers as boom-swollen incomes are spent.
  The recession has now truly arrived, though not, you will note, from any lack of "effective demand," but rather due to a surfeit of defective – that is, mutually incompatible – demand.

el tema esta en que en Economia las crisis tardan tiempo en desencadenarse y cuando llegan se pasa mal de verdad